Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/15 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 81.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 500 SO: 350 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/15 18 UTC: 14.2S/80.0E, MAX WIND=030KT . 24H: 2005/10/16 06 UTC: 14.6S/78.6E, MAX WIND=030KT . 36H: 2005/10/16 18 UTC: 14.9S/77.2E, MAX WIND=025KT . 48H: 2005/10/17 06 UTC: 15.2S/75.7E, MAX WIND=025KT . 60H: 2005/10/17 18 UTC: 15.2S/74.0E DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/10/18 06 UTC: 15.2S/72.2E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: **** CORRECTED MSLP **** T=2.0 AND CI=2.5- CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEAKENEND : UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE WITH A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A GOOD DIVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ; BUT LOWER LAYER ENERGETIC CONDITIONS BECOME CRITICAL WITH SST ONLY REACHING 26 TO 27 DEGREES. NWP MODELS AGREE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR A WHILE, AND THEN TO TRACK THE SYSTEM WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.