Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/15 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 80.4E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 500 SO: 350 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/16 00 UTC: 14.3S/79.5E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/10/16 12 UTC: 14.5S/78.2E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/10/17 00 UTC: 14.8S/76.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2005/10/17 12 UTC: 14.9S/75.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2005/10/18 00 UTC: 14.9S/73.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5 AND CI=2.0 CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEAKENEND : UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE WITH A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A GOOD DIVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ; BUT LOWER LAYER ENERGETIC CONDITIONS BECOME CRITICAL WITH SST ONLY REACHING 26 TO 27 DEGREES. NWP MODELS AGREE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM MAINLY WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, DISSIPATING IT GRADUALLY.