Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/15 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 79.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/16 06 UTC: 14.3S/78.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 24H: 2005/10/16 18 UTC: 14.6S/77.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2005/10/17 06 UTC: 14.7S/75.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2005/10/17 18 UTC: 14.7S/73.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. MINIMUM SLP IS ESTIMATED WITH BUOY 56517 (1003.4 HPA AT 1410Z NEAR 13.98S/80.83E). CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION : THE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING OVER SST ONLY REACHING 26 DEGREES, IN THE VICINITY OF DRY AIR WITH THE REBUILDING OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES SOUTH OF MASCARENES ISLANDS. NEVERTHELESS, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT, 25/30 KT FORCE WINDS STILL EXIST FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ADVISORY ISSUED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION (UNLIKELY).