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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/3/20052006
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 3

2.A POSITION 2005/11/06 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.6S / 77.4E
(EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/07 00 UTC: 09.2S/77.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/11/07 12 UTC: 09.4S/77.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/11/08 00 UTC: 09.8S/76.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/11/08 12 UTC: 10.3S/76.1E, MAX WIND=030KT.
60H: 2005/11/09 00 UTC: 10.8S/75.2E, MAX WIND=030KT.
72H: 2005/11/09 12 UTC: 11.4S/74.4E, MAX WIND=030KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-
LAST NIGHT QUIKSCAT SWAT OF 0057UTC REVEALS A WELL DEFINED CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WITH WINDS NEAR THE CENTER UP TO 20/25 KT AND STRONGEST WINDS REACHING LOCALLY 30KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, PERSISTANT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DESORGANIZED.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE SAME AREA DURING THE NEXT HOURS AND THEN TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED BEEING MODERATE AND TEMPORARILY GROWING STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
SO, POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION REMAINS WEAK.
MORE EASTERN, IN THE AUSTRALIAN METAREA 10, THE TROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 90E AND ENTER IN THE RSMC LA REUNION RESPONSABILITY AREA DURING NEXT NIGHT.
INTENSITY OF THESE SYSTEM NR3 DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.