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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/3/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3

2.A POSITION 2005/11/07 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9S / 77.1E
(EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/07 12 UTC: 09.2S/76.7E, MAX WIND=030KT .
24H: 2005/11/08 00 UTC: 09.5S/76.3E, MAX WIND=030KT .
36H: 2005/11/08 12 UTC: 09.8S/76.1E, MAX WIND=025KT .
48H: 2005/11/09 00 UTC: 10.3S/75.9E, MAX WIND=025KT .
60H: 2005/11/09 12 UTC: 11.4S/74.9E, MAX WIND=025KT .
72H: 2005/11/10 00 UTC: 12.2S/73.1E, MAX WIND=025KT .

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED IN CURVED BAND PATTERN DESPITE SOME DISCONTINUITY (CF INDOEX IMAGERY SINCE 1800 UTC AND MICRO-WAVES AQUA-1 AT 2016UTC IMAGERY).
SINCE 22UTC, CURVED BAND HEAD SEEMS TO BE CONSTRAINED BY AN EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WHICH IS FORECASTED GROWING STRONGER WITHIN 18 TO 24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION REMAINS POOR.