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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/3/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3

2.A POSITION 2005/11/07 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.4S / 77.3E
(EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/07 18 UTC: 08.8S/76.3E, MAX WIND=030KT .
24H: 2005/11/08 06 UTC: 09.3S/75.8E, MAX WIND=030KT .
36H: 2005/11/08 18 UTC: 09.7S/75.4E, MAX WIND=025KT .
48H: 2005/11/09 06 UTC: 10.1S/74.9E, MAX WIND=025KT .
60H: 2005/11/09 18 UTC: 10.4S/74.4E, MAX WIND=025KT .
72H: 2005/11/10 06 UTC: 10.9S/73.9E, MAX WIND=025KT .

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
THE LLCC CENTRE IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA, DUE TO A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY SEEMS STABILIZED, ENERGETIC CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVOURABLE AND POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION REMAINS POOR.