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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/3/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3

2.A POSITION 2005/11/07 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 77.6E
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/08 00 UTC: 09.8S/77.7E, MAX WIND=030KT .
24H: 2005/11/08 12 UTC: 10.3S/77.8E, MAX WIND=030KT .
36H: 2005/11/09 00 UTC: 11.6S/77.1E, MAX WIND=025KT .
48H: 2005/11/09 12 UTC: 12.5S/76.3E, MAX WIND=025KT .
60H: 2005/11/10 00 UTC: 13.6S/75.6E, MAX WIND=025KT .
72H: 2005/11/10 12 UTC: 14.8S/74.8E, MAX WIND=025KT .

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
THE LLCC CENTRE IS LOCATED PARTLY EXPOSED, EAST OF THE CURVED BAND, DUE TO A SLIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MONSOON FLOW IS FAVOURABLE, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY NOW SEEMS STABIULIZED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS POOR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONNARY, BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS.