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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/4/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4

2.A POSITION 2005/11/07 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 89.5E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 180 SE: 220 SO: 180 NO: 180

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/07 12 UTC: 12.6S/87.8E, MAX WIND=040KT .
24H: 2005/11/08 00 UTC: 13.3S/86.4E, MAX WIND=050KT .
36H: 2005/11/08 12 UTC: 14.1S/84.6E, MAX WIND=040KT .
48H: 2005/11/09 00 UTC: 14.7S/82.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , DISSIPATING.
60H: 2005/11/09 12 UTC: 15.4S/79.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING.
72H: 2005/11/10 00 UTC: DISSIPATED.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKENED AND SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PROFITS BY A GOOD POLARWARD OUTFLOW.
1159 QUIKSCAT SWAT REVEALS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH CENTER NOW LOCATED UNDER THE MAIN DEEP CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY BUT ITS RAPID SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK WOULD SHIP IT OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LESS ENERGETICS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.