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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/4/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4

2.A POSITION 2005/11/07 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2S / 88.5E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 180 SE: 220 SO: 180 NO: 180

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/08 00 UTC: 15.0S/85.9E, MAX WIND=030KT .
24H: 2005/11/08 12 UTC: 15.8S/83.7E, MAX WIND=025KT .
36H: 2005/11/09 00 UTC: 16.8S/81.6E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING.
48H: 2005/11/09 12 UTC: 18.2S/79.7E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATED.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0
CI=2.5-
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SEEMS NOW SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED ; THE LLCC CENTRE IS PARLY EXPOSED DUE TO A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS, OVER COOLER SST. THE SYSTEM IS THUS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY.