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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/4/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4

2.A POSITION 2005/11/07 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8S / 86.2E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 040 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/08 06 UTC: 15.4S/84.3E, MAX WIND=030KT .
24H: 2005/11/08 18 UTC: 16.0S/82.3E, MAX WIND=025KT .
36H: 2005/11/09 06 UTC: 17.0S/80.5E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING.
48H: 2005/11/09 18 UTC: 18.3S/78.5E DISSIPATED.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (COOLER SST). THE SYSTEM IS THUS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.