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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/5/20052006
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5

2.A POSITION 2005/11/23 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5S / 90.3E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 220 SE: 300 SO: 220 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/23 12 UTC: 13.0S/89.9E, MAX WIND=100KT.
24H: 2005/11/24 00 UTC: 13.5S/89.0E, MAX WIND=100KT.
36H: 2005/11/24 12 UTC: 14.0S/87.9E, MAX WIND=090KT.
48H: 2005/11/25 00 UTC: 14.3S/85.6E, MAX WIND=090KT.
60H: 2005/11/25 12 UTC: 14.1S/83.6E, MAX WIND=080KT.
72H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 14.0S/81.3E, MAX WIND=080KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.0
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS RATHER SMALL BUT SYMETRIC AND WELL ORGANIZED ABOUT A CLEAR EYE.
BERTIE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR A WHILE, BEFORE TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER THURSDAY NOV 24 DUE TO THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.