Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 2.A POSITION 2005/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 90.1E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/24 06 UTC: 14.9S/89.8E, MAX WIND=100KT. 24H: 2005/11/24 18 UTC: 15.4S/89.0E, MAX WIND=090KT. 36H: 2005/11/25 06 UTC: 15.8S/88.0E, MAX WIND=080KT. 48H: 2005/11/25 18 UTC: 15.9S/86.7E, MAX WIND=070KT. 60H: 2005/11/26 06 UTC: 15.9S/84.8E, MAX WIND=060KT. 72H: 2005/11/26 18 UTC: 15.8S/82.8E, MAX WIND=050KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5+, CI=6.0 INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS ALONG 90E AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND CONCENTRATED WITH A VERY CLEAR SMALL AND WARM EYE, WE CAN NOTE SLIGHT WARMING DEEP CONVECTION DURING LAST HOURS. IT IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WESTWARDS BEYOND, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE WINDSHEAR INCREASE AND THE AIR BECOMES DRYER (VAPOR SSMI AND WV IMAGERY).