Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/5/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (ALVIN ex-BERTIE) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/24 AT 0000 UTC : 14.3S / 89.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/24 12 UTC: 15.2S/89.4E, MAX WIND=090KT. 24H: 2005/11/25 00 UTC: 15.7S/88.4E, MAX WIND=080KT. 36H: 2005/11/25 12 UTC: 15.9S/87.3E, MAX WIND=070KT. 48H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 16.0S/85.8E, MAX WIND=060KT. 60H: 2005/11/26 12 UTC: 16.1S/84.2E, MAX WIND=050KT. 72H: 2005/11/27 00 UTC: 16.1S/82.5E, MAX WIND=040KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5+, CI=6.0- INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE IS RENAMED ALVIN AS IT IS CROSSING 90E. THE SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND CONCENTRATED WITH A VERY CLEAR SMALL AND WARM EYE, WITH SLIGHT WARMING DEEP CONVECTION DURING THIS NIGHT. IT IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WESTWARDS BEYOND, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE WINDSHEAR INCREASE AND THE AIR BECOMES DRYER (VAPOR SSMI AND WV IMAGERY) OVER COOLER SEA.