Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/5/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (ALVIN) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/24 AT 1200 UTC : 14.7S / 89.7E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 250 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/25 00 UTC: 14.8S/89.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2005/11/25 12 UTC: 14.9S/87.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 15.1S/85.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2005/11/26 12 UTC: 15.1S/83.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, TROPICAL STORM. 60H: 2005/11/27 00 UTC: 14.9S/81.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, TROPICAL STORM. 72H: 2005/11/27 12 UTC: 14.9S/79.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, TROPICAL STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5, CI=5.5+ INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN HAS CLEARLY SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW QUASI-STATIONARY. THE SYSTEM IS YET SYMMETRIC AND CONCENTRATED WITH A WELL DEFINED SMALL AND WARM EYE, BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS WEAKENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CDO ON THE LAST AMSU PASS. IT IS FORECASTED TO TRACK MORE WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT HOURS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE WINDSHEAR INCREASE AND THE AIR BECOMES DRYER (VAPOR SSMI AND WV IMAGERY) OVER COOLER SEA.