Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/5/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (ALVIN EX-BERTIE) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/24 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8S / 89.4E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 250 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/25 06 UTC: 14.8S/89.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2005/11/25 18 UTC: 14.8S/88.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2005/11/26 06 UTC: 15.0S/86.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2005/11/26 18 UTC: 15.1S/84.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, TROPICAL STORM. 60H: 2005/11/27 06 UTC: 15.0S/82.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, TROPICAL STORM. 72H: 2005/11/27 18 UTC: 14.9S/80.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, TROPICAL STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5+, CI=5.5- THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN SEEMS TO HAVE RECURVED HIS TRACK WESTWARDS ET HAS WEAKENED DURING THE RECENT PAST HOURS (EYE CAN'T BE SEEN ON THE RECENT INDOEX INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY). DEEPEST CONVECTION IS MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT (SSMIS F13 1356UTC). IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT HOURS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE WINDSHEAR INCREASE AND THE AIR BECOMES DRYER (VAPOR SSMI AND WV IMAGERY) OVER COOLER SEA.