Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/5/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (ALVIN EX-BERTIE) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/25 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 88.6E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.0 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/25 18 UTC: 14.6S/87.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, TROPICAL STORM. 24H: 2005/11/26 06 UTC: 14.6S/86.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, TROPICAL STORM. 36H: 2005/11/26 18 UTC: 14.5S/84.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, TROPICAL STORM. 48H: 2005/11/27 06 UTC: 14.4S/83.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION. 60H: 2005/11/27 18 UTC: 14.4S/82.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION. 72H: 2005/11/28 06 UTC: 14.4S/80.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0- ; CI=4.0- THE SYSTEM ALVIN EX-BERTIE WEAKENEND SIGNIFICANTLY LAST NIGHT, UNDER THE EFFECT OF A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLER SST (26 DEGREES), AND A DRY ENVIRONMENT (CF WV IMAGERY). THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS LARGELY EXPOSED, THE CENTRE IS LOCATED 40 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CDO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING GRADUALLY, TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHEN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.