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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/5/20052006
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (ALVIN EX BERTIE)

2.A POSITION 2005/11/25 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3S / 88.3E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 14.3S/87.6E, MAX WIND=040KT.
24H: 2005/11/26 12 UTC: 13.9S/86.3E, MAX WIND=035KT.
36H: 2005/11/27 00 UTC: 13.6S/84.6E, MAX WIND=035KT.
48H: 2005/11/27 12 UTC: 13.6S/83.0E, MAX WIND=030KT.
60H: 2005/11/28 00 UTC: 13.6S/81.1E, MAX WIND=030KT.
72H: 2005/11/28 12 UTC: 13.8S/78.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0- ; CI=3.5-
ALVIN EX-BERTIE'S LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS NOW MAINLY EXPOSED. THE SYSTEM WEAKENEND SIGNIFICANTLY LAST NIGHT, IT IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RATHER UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOL SST (26 DEGREES), AND A DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING GRADUALLY, TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHEN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.