Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/5/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (ALVIN EX-BERTIE) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/25 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0S / 87.7E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/26 06 UTC: 13.9S/86.7E, MAX WIND=035KT. 24H: 2005/11/26 18 UTC: 13.8S/85.6E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/11/27 06 UTC: 13.7S/84.3E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/11/27 18 UTC: 13.7S/83.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/11/28 06 UTC: 13.8S/81.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/11/28 18 UTC: 14.0S/80.0E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+, CI=3.0+ ALVIN EX-BERTIE'S LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED WEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION, DUE TO THE RATHER WESTERLY STRONG WINDSHEAR THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY WEAKENS WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING GRADUALLY, TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHEN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.