Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/5/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (ALVIN) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/26 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 87.2E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/26 12 UTC: 13.7S/86.1E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/11/27 00 UTC: 13.6S/84.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/11/27 12 UTC: 13.5S/83.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2005/11/28 00 UTC: 13.5S/82.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+ SYSTEM QUICKLY WEAKENS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG INCREASING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION LEFT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHEN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.