Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/5/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 ( ALVIN) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/26 AT 0600 UTC : 13.9S / 86.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 035 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/26 18 UTC: 13.7S/85.2E, MAX WIND=035KT. 24H: 2005/11/27 06 UTC: 13.5S/83.6E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/11/27 18 UTC: 13.3S/82.1E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/11/28 06 UTC: 13.1S/80.6E, MAX WIND=020KT. 60H: 2005/11/28 18 UTC: DISSIPATED. 72H: 2005/11/29 06 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5+ AND CI=2.5+. THERE IS NO MORE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, SO THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND OF THE WINDS IS ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO THE LOOK OF THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL VORTEX AND TO THE QUIKSCAT DATA (SWATH OF 0035Z). SYSTEM HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG INCREASING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHEN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.