Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/5/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-ALVIN) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/26 AT 1200 UTC : 13.8S / 86.1E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/27 00 UTC: 13.6S/84.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, FILLING UP. 24H: 2005/11/27 12 UTC: 13.3S/82.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, FILLING UP. 36H: 2005/11/28 00 UTC: 13.2S/80.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2005/11/28 12 UTC: 13.1S/78.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2005/11/29 00 UTC: DISSIPATED. 72H: 2005/11/29 12 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5+ AND CI=2.5. THERE IS NO MORE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, SO THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND OF THE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO THE PATERN OF THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL VORTEX AND TO THE QUIKSCAT DATA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP VERY SLOWLY ON THE NORTHEN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.