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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/5/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-ALVIN)

2.A POSITION 2005/11/26 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 85.1E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 040 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/27 06 UTC: 13.1S/83.5E, MAX WIND=030KT .
24H: 2005/11/27 18 UTC: 13.0S/82.0E, MAX WIND=030KT .
36H: 2005/11/28 06 UTC: 12.9S/80.4E, MAX WIND=025KT .
48H: 2005/11/28 18 UTC: 12.8S/78.6E, MAX WIND=020KT , DISSIPATING.
60H: 2005/11/29 06 UTC: 12.6S/76.7E, MAX WIND=020KT , DISSIPATED.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 ; CI=2.5-
THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED, MAXIMUM WINDS REACH LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM (CF QUIKSCAT DATA). THIS RESIDUAL CIRCULATION KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.