Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/5/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-ALVIN) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/27 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1S / 84.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/27 12 UTC: 12.9S/83.1E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/11/28 00 UTC: 12.6S/81.5E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/11/28 12 UTC: 12.5S/79.6E, MAX WIND=030KT. 48H: 2005/11/29 00 UTC: 12.1S/78.2E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/11/29 12 UTC: 11.9S/76.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/11/30 00 UTC: 11.7S/75.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 ; CI=2.5- THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED ; CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTED OVER DURING NIGHTTIME, BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR CONSTRAINT. THE SYSTEM EX-ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.