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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/5/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-ALVIN)

2.A POSITION 2005/11/27 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9S / 83.9E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/28 00 UTC: 12.6S/82.1E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/11/28 12 UTC: 12.1S/80.5E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/11/29 00 UTC: 11.8S/79.1E, MAX WIND=030KT.
48H: 2005/11/29 12 UTC: 11.3S/77.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING.
60H: 2005/11/30 00 UTC: 10.7S/76.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING.
72H: 2005/11/30 12 UTC: 10.1S/74.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 ; CI=2.5-
THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED AND WINDS ARE CALIBRATED ACCORDING TO LAST NIGHT QUISCAT SWAT.
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKENED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT , SO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTED OVER IN RELATIONSHIP WITH MORE FAVORABLE SST WEST FROM 85E (27 TO 28 CELCIUS DEGREES).
IT REMAINS CYCLIC AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE REBUILDING MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR CONSTRAINT.
SYSTEM EX-ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY AT SHORT RANGE THEN TO FILL UP AND TO DISSIPATE AT MEDIUM RANGE.