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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/5/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-ALVIN)

2.A POSITION 2005/11/27 AT 1800 UTC :
12.4S / 83.3E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: 100 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/28 06 UTC: 11.9S/82.1E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/11/28 18 UTC: 11.3S/80.9E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/11/29 06 UTC: 11.1S/79.2E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/11/29 18 UTC: 10.9S/77.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/11/30 06 UTC: 10.2S/76.1E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/11/30 18 UTC: 09.8S/74.2E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WEAK AT THE END OF THE DAY, COULD REBUILD DURING THE NIGHT (CYCLING CONVECTION).
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.

SYSTEM EX-ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY.