Back to the RSMC advisories list

Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

---

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/5/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-ALVIN)

2.A POSITION 2005/11/28 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 83.3E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: 100 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/28 12 UTC: 12.1S/82.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/11/29 00 UTC: 11.7S/80.6E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/11/29 12 UTC: 11.2S/79.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/11/30 00 UTC: 10.9S/77.3E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/11/30 12 UTC: 10.4S/75.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/12/01 00 UTC: 10.2S/73.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CYCLIC CONVECTION HAS STARTED AGAIN OVER THE CENTRE DURING THE NIGHT.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.

SYSTEM EX-ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY.