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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/5/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-ALVIN)

2.A POSITION 2005/11/28 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5S / 83.3E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 120 SO: 120 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/28 18 UTC: 12.4S/82.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/11/29 06 UTC: 12.3S/81.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/11/29 18 UTC: 12.2S/80.2E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/11/30 06 UTC: 11.8S/78.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
60H: 2005/11/30 18 UTC: 11.2S/77.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
72H: 2005/12/01 06 UTC: 10.5S/75.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0-, CI=2.0

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE RESIDUAL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS VERY FLUCTUATING.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT AFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
SYSTEM EX-ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES FILLING UP GRADUALLY