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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/5/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-ALVIN)

2.A POSITION 2005/11/28 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 82.5E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: 100 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/11/29 00 UTC: 13.0S/81.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/11/29 12 UTC: 12.8S/80.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/11/30 00 UTC: 12.4S/79.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/11/30 12 UTC: 12.0S/78.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
60H: 2005/12/01 00 UTC: 11.3S/77.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
72H: 2005/12/01 12 UTC: 11.0S/76.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE RESIDUAL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS VERY FLUCTUATING.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT AFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
SYSTEM EX-ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AND GRADUALLY FILL UP.

THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.