Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/23 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3S / 89.7E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/23 18 UTC: 10.6S/88.2E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/12/24 06 UTC: 11.2S/86.3E, MAX WIND=040KT. 36H: 2005/12/24 18 UTC: 12.0S/83.7E, MAX WIND=040KT. 48H: 2005/12/25 06 UTC: 12.8S/81.2E, MAX WIND=045KT. 60H: 2005/12/25 18 UTC: 13.6S/78.6E, MAX WIND=050KT. 72H: 2005/12/26 06 UTC: 14.3S/75.7E, MAX WIND=050KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, UNTIL NOW CONVECTION DID NOT CONSOLIDATE DURABLY. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS PARTLY EXPOSED BUT SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND RATHER SYMMETRICAL PATTERN (CF QUIKSCAT DATA). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING SLOWLY.