Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 86.8E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/24 06 UTC: 11.1S/84.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2005/12/24 18 UTC: 11.8S/82.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2005/12/25 06 UTC: 13.0S/79.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2005/12/25 18 UTC: 13.9S/77.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2005/12/26 06 UTC: 14.6S/74.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2005/12/26 18 UTC: 15.5S/72.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNDERGOING A MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ; UNTIL NOW, CONVECTION DID NOT CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ; UNDER THE CONSTRAINT OF A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL.