Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/24 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.6S / 86.1E (TEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/24 12 UTC: 11.5S/83.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2005/12/25 00 UTC: 12.4S/81.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2005/12/25 12 UTC: 13.2S/79.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2005/12/26 00 UTC: 13.8S/77.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2005/12/26 12 UTC: 14.4S/75.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2005/12/27 00 UTC: 15.0S/73.2E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNDERGOING A MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ; UNTIL NOW, CONVECTION DID NOT CONSOLIDATE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ; UNDER THE CONSTRAINT OF A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK.