Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/24 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5S / 84.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/24 18 UTC: 12.2S/82.9E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/12/25 06 UTC: 12.9S/81.0E, MAX WIND=035KT. 36H: 2005/12/25 18 UTC: 13.6S/78.9E, MAX WIND=040KT. 48H: 2005/12/26 06 UTC: 14.5S/76.8E, MAX WIND=045KT. 60H: 2005/12/26 18 UTC: 15.3S/74.8E, MAX WIND=050KT. 72H: 2005/12/27 06 UTC: 16.2S/72.5E, MAX WIND=055KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS CYCLIC, ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THAT SHOULD DECREASE BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.