Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/24 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1S / 84.2E (TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/25 00 UTC: 12.9S/81.9E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/12/25 12 UTC: 13.6S/79.6E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/12/26 00 UTC: 14.5S/77.5E, MAX WIND=035KT. 48H: 2005/12/26 12 UTC: 15.5S/75.4E, MAX WIND=035KT. 60H: 2005/12/27 00 UTC: 16.7S/73.2E, MAX WIND=025KT. 72H: 2005/12/27 12 UTC: 18.0S/71.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0, CI=2.0+ LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED AND FULLY EXPOSED WEST OF THE CYCLING ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A MODERATE TO RATHER STRONGF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.