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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/6/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6

2.A POSITION 2005/12/24 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8S / 82.5E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 090 SO: 090 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/12/25 06 UTC: 13.6S/80.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/12/25 18 UTC: 14.3S/77.8E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/12/26 06 UTC: 15.0S/76.1E, MAX WIND=035KT.
48H: 2005/12/26 18 UTC: 16.0S/74.4E, MAX WIND=035KT.
60H: 2005/12/27 06 UTC: 17.0S/72.3E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/12/27 18 UTC: 18.4S/70.1E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0, CI=2.0+
LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED AND FULLY EXPOSED EAST OF AN AREA OF CYCLING CONVECTION. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM TRACK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.