Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/25 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 78.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/26 00 UTC: 14.2S/75.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/12/26 12 UTC: 14.9S/73.3E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/12/27 00 UTC: 15.8S/71.0E, MAX WIND=030KT. 48H: 2005/12/27 12 UTC: 17.0S/68.8E, MAX WIND=035KT. 60H: 2005/12/28 00 UTC: 18.3S/66.7E, MAX WIND=030KT. 72H: 2005/12/28 12 UTC: 20.0S/65.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0-, CI=2.0 LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED AND WIDELY EXPOSED EAST OF THE ASSOCIATED CYCLING CONVECTION. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RATHER STRONG BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 24 HOURS.