Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/26 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 75.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/26 12 UTC: 14.4S/72.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2005/12/27 00 UTC: 15.4S/69.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2005/12/27 12 UTC: 16.3S/67.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2005/12/28 00 UTC: 17.8S/65.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2005/12/28 12 UTC: 19.7S/63.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/12/29 00 UTC: 21.8S/61.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0-, CI=2.0- LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED AND EXPOSED EAST OF THE ASSOCIATED CYCLING CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS STRONGLY EASTERLY SHEARED, IT HAS TRACKED WESTWARDS WITH ACCELERATION DURING LAST HOURS. THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES. NWP PRODUCTS DOESN'T AGREE BEYOND 48H ABOUT THE EVACUATION TOWARDS THE POLAR TROUGH OR NOT. WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK, BUT RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY IMPORTANT.