Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/6/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/28 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 66.6E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/28 12 UTC: 16.1S/65.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2005/12/29 00 UTC: 16.7S/63.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2005/12/29 12 UTC: 17.3S/61.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2005/12/30 00 UTC: 18.2S/59.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2005/12/30 12 UTC: 19.2S/57.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2005/12/31 00 UTC: 20.2S/55.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5 AND CI=2.0- LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS BAD DEFINED. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CYCLIC AND IS MAINLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION REMAINS LIMITED. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AT SHORT RANGE, BUT UNDERGOING UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONNEMENT (SST AND MORE DRY AIR) AT MIDDLE RANGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.