Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/6/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/28 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6S / 63.9E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/29 00 UTC: 18.8S/61.7E, MAX WIND=020KT. 24H: 2005/12/29 12 UTC: 19.8S/59.9E, MAX WIND=020KT. 36H: 2005/12/30 00 UTC: 20.8S/58.1E, MAX WIND=020KT. 48H: 2005/12/30 12 UTC: 21.9S/56.2E, MAX WIND=020KT. 60H: 2005/12/31 00 UTC: 22.1S/55.5E, MAX WIND=020KT. 72H: 2005/12/31 12 UTC: 22.0S/54.8E, MAX WIND=020KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED, ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS CYCLIC. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IS WEAK. SYSTEM NR06 IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, BEFORE TRACKING SLOWLY IN THE TROUGH SOUTH OF REUNION ISLAND. THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.