Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/6/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 2.A POSITION 2005/12/29 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2S / 61.2E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/12/29 12 UTC: 20.7S/59.0E, MAX WIND=020KT. 24H: 2005/12/30 00 UTC: 21.8S/58.3E, MAX WIND=020KT. 36H: 2005/12/30 12 UTC: 22.6S/57.8E, MAX WIND=020KT. 48H: 2005/12/31 00 UTC: 23.7S/57.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2005/12/31 12 UTC: DISSIPATED. 72H: 2006/01/01 00 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED BUT AMSU 1756 MW IMAGERY PERMIT TO LOCATE IT WITHIN 100 KM ON THE NORTH OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS CYCLIC. AVAILABLE 12UTC NWP MODELS (ECMWF, ARP-TROPIQUES, UKMO) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO KEEP ON TRACKING THE LLCC SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWARDS IN THE TROUGH SOUTH OF REUNION ISLAND. THE 2 ISLANDS (MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION) SHOULD STAY AWAY OF THE MORE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IS WEAK. THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.