Back to the RSMC advisories list

Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

---

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/7/20052006
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7

2.A POSITION 2006/01/04 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1S / 37.2E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/01/04 12 UTC: 23.4S/35.6E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2006/01/05 00 UTC: 24.4S/34.5E OVERLAND.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5+
THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED, CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING AND DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH, AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE WITHIN 12 TO 15 HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CITY OF INHAMBANE. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CAN LOCALLY CAUSE STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A 300 KM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.