Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/7/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/04 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3S / 36.3E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/04 18 UTC: 23.2S/34.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/05 06 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5+ THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED, WHITHOUT POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION BEFORE ITS LANDFALL, BUT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORMY ACTIVITY OVER SEA, WHICH BEGIN TO FALL OVER LAND. THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM, BADLY DEFINED, IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CITY OF INHAMBANE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CAN CAUSE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A 300 KM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.