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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/7/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7

2.A POSITION 2006/01/04 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5S / 35.5E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/01/05 00 UTC: 23.4S/33.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2006/01/05 12 UTC: DISSIPATED.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
THE SYSTEM, WICH IS ACTUALLY MAKING LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF VILANCULOS, HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED DURING LAST HOURS, WITH BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
IT SHOULD WEAKEN OVER LAND, BUT GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALLS AND SIGNIFICANT STORMY ACTIVITY, WITH STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.