Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/7/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/05 AT 1200 UTC : 24.6S / 34.5E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/06 00 UTC: 25.8S/34.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/06 12 UTC: 26.9S/33.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/01/07 00 UTC: 28.2S/32.1E OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/01/07 12 UTC: 29.3S/30.8E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CENTRE IS OVERLAND BUT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NOW SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK BACK TO SEA DURING THE VERY NEXT HOURS WITHOUT DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY, AS THE SST SOUTH TO 25S ARE NO MORE FAVORABLES. THE FORECAST TRACK MAKE IT LAND AGAIN AT MIDDLE RANGE. ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS MAINLY LOCATED OVER SEA, GENERATE STRONG STORMY ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALLS AND STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.