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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/7/20052006
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7

2.A POSITION 2006/01/05 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.5S / 34.7E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/01/06 06 UTC: 25.8S/33.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2006/01/06 18 UTC: 27.0S/33.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2006/01/07 06 UTC: 28.2S/32.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2006/01/07 18 UTC: 29.6S/32.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2006/01/08 06 UTC: 30.7S/33.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2006/01/08 18 UTC: 32.0S/35.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
A SMALL CDO PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRE WICH IS OVERLAND AND IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE COAST.
IT IS EXPECTED TO GO BACK OVER SEA DURING THE VERY NEXT HOURS, WITHOUT DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY, AS THE SST SOUTH TO 26S ARE LOWER THAN 26°C, AND THERE IS NO LOWLEVEL INFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN PART.

IT SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARDS; AND THEN MERGE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH.
IT GENERATES IMPORTANT STORMY ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALLS AND STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.