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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/7/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7

2.A POSITION 2006/01/06 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3S / 33.7E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/01/06 12 UTC: 26.0S/33.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2006/01/07 00 UTC: 26.9S/32.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2006/01/07 12 UTC: 28.0S/32.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2006/01/08 00 UTC: 29.5S/32.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2006/01/08 12 UTC: 31.1S/33.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2006/01/09 00 UTC: 32.9S/35.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CENTRE SEEMS TO HAVE COME BACK OVER SEAS, BUT IT SHOULDEN'T DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY, AS THE SST SOUTH TO 26S ARE LOWER THAN 26°C, AND THERE IS NO LOWLEVEL INFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN PART.
IT SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARDS, AND MERGE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 72H.
IT GENERATES IMPORTANT STORMY ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALLS AND STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.