Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/7/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/06 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0S / 33.9E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 350 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/06 18 UTC: 25.6S/33.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/07 06 UTC: 26.6S/32.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/01/07 18 UTC: 27.9S/32.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/01/08 06 UTC: 29.6S/33.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/01/08 18 UTC: 32.0S/34.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/01/09 06 UTC: 34.4S/37.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CENTRE HAS BEEN RELOCALISED MORE NORTHERN ALONG MOZAMBICAL COASTLINES BETWEEN INHAMBANE AND MAPUTO , BUT IT SHOULDEN'T DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY, AS THE SST SOUTH TO 26S ARE LOWER THAN 26°C, AND THERE IS NO LOWLEVEL INFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN PART. IT SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARDS, AND MERGE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 72H. ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS, MAINLY LOCATED OVER SEA BUT ALSO OVER LAND EXTENDING UP ON THE NORTHWESTERN OF INHAMBANE, GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALLS, WITH STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. ACCORDING TO THE EXPECTED TRACK, THIS HEAVY RAINFALLS SHOULD OCCUR OVER MAPUTO AREA WITHIN 12 HOURS.