Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/7/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/06 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.4S / 33.3E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/07 00 UTC: 26.1S/33.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/07 12 UTC: 27.2S/32.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/01/08 00 UTC: 28.6S/32.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/01/08 12 UTC: 30.6S/33.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/01/09 00 UTC: 32.6S/35.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2006/01/09 12 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE MOZAMBICAL COASTLINE AND SEEMS TO BE BACK OVER SEA BETWEEN INHAMBANE AND MAPUTO , BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT RE-INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARDS, AS THE SST SOUTH TO 26S ARE LOWER THAN 26°C, AND THERE IS NO LOWLEVEL INFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN PART. ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS, MAINLY LOCATED OVER SEA BUT ALSO OVER LAND, GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALLS, WITH STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. ACCORDING TO THE EXPECTED SOUTHWARDS TRACK, HEAVY RAINFALLS (LOCALLY MORE THAN 100MM/24H) ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND NEXT NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. THIS RAINFALLS MOVE TOWARDS SWAZILAND DURING THE NEXT NIGHT. ECMWF AND ARPEGE TROPIQUES NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT UKMO NWP MODEL FORECAST AN ALTERNATIVE WESTWARDS TRACK, FILL THE LOW AND DISSIPATE IT OVERLAND.