Back to the RSMC advisories list

Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

---

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/7/20052006
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7

2.A POSITION 2006/01/06 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2S / 32.8E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/01/07 06 UTC: 26.1S/32.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2006/01/07 18 UTC: 27.2S/32.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2006/01/08 06 UTC: 28.8S/32.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2006/01/08 18 UTC: 30.8S/34.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2006/01/09 06 UTC: 32.2S/36.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2006/01/09 18 UTC: DISSIPATED.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS RELOCATED OVER LAND, BUT VERY CLOSE THE MOZAMBICAL COASTLINE. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS ALWAYS OVER LAND, COMING BACK OVER SEAS ONLY UP TO 24 HOURS SOUTH TO 28S.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT RE-INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARDS, AS THE SST SOUTH TO 26S ARE LOWER THAN 26°C, AND THERE IS NO LOWLEVEL INFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN.

ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS, MAINLY LOCATED OVER SEA BUT ALSO OVER LAND OVER EAST OF ZIMBABWE, THE ALL SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE THEN OVER SWAZILAND, GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALLS, WITH STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.