Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/7/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/07 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3S / 32.6E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/07 12 UTC: 25.9S/32.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/08 00 UTC: 27.0S/32.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/01/08 12 UTC: 28.8S/32.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/01/09 00 UTC: 30.8S/33.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/01/09 12 UTC: 32.4S/36.4E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL LOCATED OVER LAND, NORTH TOF MAPUTO, BUT ALWAYS CLOSE THE MOZAMBICAL COASTLINE. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS ALWAYS OVER LAND, COMING BACK OVER SEAS ONLY UP TO 24 HOURS SOUTH TO 28S. THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT RE-INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARDS, AS THE SST SOUTH TO 26S ARE LOWER THAN 26°C, AND THERE IS NO LOWLEVEL INFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN. ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS, NOW MAINLY LOCATED OVER LAND NORTH OF THE CENTER UNDERGOING A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALLS, WITH STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS OVER SOUTH OF ZIMBABWE, THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE, THE NORTHEAST OF SOUTH AFRICA AND OVER SWAZILAND.