Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/7/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/07 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8S / 32.0E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/07 18 UTC: 27.3S/32.0E OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/08 06 UTC: 28.8S/32.3E EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/01/08 18 UTC: 31.5S/34.0E EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/01/09 06 UTC: 32.5S/37.3E DISSIPATING. 60H: 2006/01/09 18 UTC: 33.2S/40.7E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED. THE LLCC CENTER IS HARD TO LOCATE AND IS STILL OVER LAND, NORTH OF SWAZILAND. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS FLUCTUATING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE, BUT IS ASSOCIATED TO A STRONG STORMY ACTIVITY, MAINLY OVER LAND, NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (CURRENTLY SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE AND NORTHEAST OF SOUTH-AFRICA, ESPECIALLY OVER THE KRUGER PARK). THESES STORMS MAY LOCALLY CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWARDS OVERLAND, FEW NWP MODELS EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO MOVE BACK OVER SEA WITHIN 24 HOURS TOWARDS THE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY. LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION